With the Presidential election nearing I thought it would be useful to upload a post about some of the major issues. This will be a very quick summary of each of these issues. While bias can never completely be eliminated, the goal is to depict these issues as they really are to the best of my ability. Struggling to face and resolve issues must begin with proper measurement of those issues. I will follow this up with a post containing more of my comments and analysis. Sources are hyperlinked.
Economy: Gross Domestic Product grew the last three months by 2.8%. GDP is a measure of the value of goods and services. It is a key indicator of growth. This was fueled by investment and consumer spending, although housing is currently a drag on the economy. Overall, this shows a healthy growth. (Bureau of Economic Analysis Press Release: July 25, 2024) Unemployment rose to 4.3% as of August 5. This is an up tick from last month and an increase form last year at this time, which is a concern. (Bureau of Labor Statistics release August 5, 2024) There were 114,000 jobs added last month, a significant decline. You can research the main pages of the websites linked here to review the rigor of the analysis.
The main issue is inflation. Which has been high the last few years and has been a difficulty for all Americans. Inflation has recently been inching downward but high prices are still being felt. The Federal Reserve, the nation’s head bank that has control of fiscal policy, has attempted to balance raising the national interest rate to cool inflation against going too far and harming the labor market, leading to recession.
So far this appears to be successful, with the exception of last months numbers on employment. Those numbers are concerning, but more data will need to be obtained before it can be shown that there has been a mistake and a downturn coming. It is anticipated that the FED will cut rates in September.
Border Security/Immigration: The statistics related to encounters at the border are complicated. It has ebbed and flowed but generally gone up over the last 20 years. It dipped to its lowest recent point at the height of the pandemic under Trump, started to come back up before Trump left office, and has gone up substantially under Biden but is coming back down again due to policy adjustments. Keep in mind that deportations have also soared under the Biden Administration.
Encounters include both those eventually let into the country and those immediately sent back and everything in between. So border encounters don’t exactly tell you how many people have been let into the country or who wasn’t caught. There is a security problem at the border, there is also a need to reform the immigration system geared toward the rule of law and opportunity.
This seems to be a general political football, where reasonable reforms, resources and actions have been proposed but not followed through with by congress or at times the President. The Biden Administration could have done what it is doing sooner, but long term solutions will require more resources, reasonable reform and law changes that groups in both parties (but most notably Republicans recently) seem to want to avoid.
Foreign Policy/Conflict: The Ukrainian attempt to repel the Russian invasion is ongoing. While Ukraine’s counter offensive has movement, the overall status of the war remains unchanging as far as overall territory regained by Ukraine or progress in Russia’s invasion. It is difficult to see how the stalemate can be tipped without increased responsible and logistically faster aid and training to Ukraine. If this is possible. Ceding territory to Putin or to a number of his unreasonable demands will only likely (at best) delay his designs on future conquest and sabotage.
Israel continues its war in Gaza in its attempt defeat Hamas after its devastating attack on October 7 of 2023. There are two tracks to this. Israel is being supported by the United States in its war against Hamas and its defeat, but there are serious questions about specific goals in its offensive, post-offensive strategy and the number of civilians being killed. There is also an effort, involving all parties including Israel, to negotiate a ceasefire to this specific conflict for humanitarian purposes, hostage exchange, and to work out a longer term ceasefire. There is also growing tension with Hezbollah and its attacks on Israel. The U.S. is attempting to prevent a large scale regional conflict.